Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

What are we looking for? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which calls the official recessions in the US, has always defined recessions as broad economic downturns that include downturns in the labor market, such as declines in employment and significantly rising unemployment.

Weekly data for unemployment insurance benefits are the earliest indicators of systemic job losses. Among the data sets, weekly continued claims for unemployment benefits, also called “insured unemployment,” is our favorite Recession Indicator. It essentially counts the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim.

The prior three business cycle recessions – not counting the Pandemic which was a lockdown, not a business cycle recession – came after Insured Unemployment had surged to:

2.64 million in December 2008, beg. of Great Recession

2.56 million in March 2001, beg. of 2001 Recession

2.49 million in July 1990, beg. of 1990 Recession.