These People Never Learn

By James Rickards

Here’s the good news: The stock market didn’t lose nearly as much today as it did yesterday. The Nasdaq even posted a 19-point gain.

Of course the Dow still lost another 151 points and the S&P lost another 14. The S&P slipped into bear market territory yesterday, which doesn’t bode well for the economy.

Since 1970, whenever the stock market fell 18% or more over a four-month time frame, the economy fell into recession every time. Well, that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

But after yesterday’s bloodbath, I heard a well-regarded business TV anchor ask her guest about “green shoots.”

I nearly fell out of my chair, laughing. These people never learn.

Crypto-Carnage Hits Every Asset Class Tied to Crypto

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 14, 2022 ~

It wasn’t just cryptocurrencies that crashed yesterday, it was crypto exchanges, crypto mining stocks, publicly-traded companies holding large investments in crypto, and crypto ETFs.

By the time the closing bell rang yesterday, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF had tanked by 20.22 percent on the day, bringing its year-to-date loss to 50.4 percent. Other crypto-related ETFs were similarly hammered. VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF gave up 19.86 percent, bringing its year-to-date loss to 53 percent.

Shares of crypto mining stocks, which were already battered and bruised, were further bloodied. Among the worst of the lot was BIT Mining Ltd. (ticker BTCM) which plunged 36.60 percent yesterday, bringing its year-to-date loss to 79.9 percent.

You Can't Trust the Numbers You Read on Wall Street

Few things make a stock go up or down more than its quarterly earnings announcement.

If a company beats Wall Street's expectations, the stock usually takes off. If it doesn't, the stock often plummets.

But I've discovered something controversial about these earnings announcements... something so eye-opening, I've been invited to lecture about it at Harvard, Wharton Business School, and the world's top chartered financial analyst ("CFA") societies.

Simply put: You can't trust any of the numbers you read on Wall Street.

But as I'll explain in today's essay, I've developed a way to correct for this using something called "forensic analysis."

Dark Market Secrets

Stock market bottoms are hard to spot.

You can run any number of analytical tools, add trendlines or your favorite indicators and try to confirm data.

But in the end…

The bottom comes when investors throw in the towel and have no more shares to sell.

And the next major up-move comes when a new firehose of capital comes rushing in.

This applies to tech, crypto, mining, energy, and every market sector.

It’s going to be a harsh reality and truth. Once you’re prepared, will see the markets as they truly are: Powerfully cyclical.

And the Dark Market Secret you’ll learn today is one you won’t find on stock screeners…

Or nearly any newsletter you pay for.

It’s Called Shareholder Turnover

Bitcoin long-term hodlers begin ‘distribution’ which preceded BTC price bottoms

By Williams Suberg

Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stuck between $29,000 and $30,000 into the weekend.

The pair had managed a revival to near $31,000 the previous day, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week put pay to bulls’ efforts.

As “out-of-hours” markets offered thin volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.

“The weekly chart on Bitcoin looks nothing short of horrific and so the trend continuation remains. I do think we consolidate a little longer in this range before dropping eventually,” Crypto Tony announced on the day in part of a series of tweets.

Rising Inflation Is Here to Stay, But You Can Protect Your Wealth

By David Forest, editor, Casey Daily Dispatch

$7.25.

That’s the federal minimum wage in the U.S…

And in California, you could pay more than that for a single gallon of gas.

Across the state, 11 gas stations are starting at $7.29 a gallon.

Think about that. If you use one gallon of gas to drive to work at a minimum wage job… your first hour is paying for your transportation.

That’s insane.

It’s also the first time in history that gas prices are above $4 per gallon in all 50 states.

Not to mention the other number you see at gas stations…

As I explained yesterday, diesel fuel prices are spiking faster than oil.

And rising prices aren’t unique to the U.S.…

Our Overlords Say Inflation and Energy Shortages Are “Worth It”

By Simon Black

Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.

School Board Member Hosts Youth Event at Her Sex Shop

Jenn Mason is a member of the Bellingham School Board in Washington state.

She also owns a sex shop called WinkWink.

And now she is hosting an event for “queer youth (0 to 18 years old)” at her sex shop.

Powered by (Formerly) Huge Gains from Real Estate, Stocks, Cryptos, as “Real” Incomes Lag? “Real” Consumer Spending Rises, Spending on Services Jumps

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Americans outspent inflation by a good margin in April. “Real” spending on goods – what consumers buy at retailers, adjusted for inflation – rose for the month but was down from the stimulus-miracle peak last year. “Real” spending on services (such as healthcare, travel, entertainment, etc., adjusted for inflation) jumped, after having collapsed during the pandemic, as the shift in spending from goods back to services continues in a sign that the distorted stimulus-economy is normalizing. Services spending is the biggie, accounting for over 60% of total consumer spending.

“Real” spending rose, approaching pre-pandemic trend.

Inflation adjusted spending on goods and services jumped 0.7% in April from March, to a new record, and was up 2.8% from stimulus-miracle April last year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. It is now approaching the pre-pandemic trend, as the consumer economy is normalizing at pre-pandemic growth rates, all adjusted for inflation:

For Financial Advisors, Bitcoin Is the Next Nasdaq

By Andy Edstrom

Financial advisors like to talk about how bitcoin (BTC) is just a substitute for the Nasdaq because of its price volatility and high correlation to stocks.

They are more right than they know, but for the wrong reasons. In the 2020s, bitcoin will likely prove to be the driver of investment returns in investors' portfolios, just as the top Nasdaq-listed companies were in the prior decade. Financial advisors had better position their clients accordingly.

Upgrading bitcoin from Amazon to Nasdaq

In late 2020, I argued that bitcoin was the next Amazon. So much has changed since then that this view needs revision. While I still think that bitcoin's future percentage returns are on the same scale as Amazon's (AMZN) were over a decade ago, framing bitcoin's investment potential today in terms of a single company is now too limiting.