The DOJ/CFTC/JPMorgan Settlement

By Ted Butler

As widely telegraphed over the past week, the US Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (along with the SEC) have settled the precious metals spoofing/manipulation case which first came into view in November 2018 with the announcement of a guilty plea by a former JPMorgan trader. The total fine of $920 million was the largest in CFTC history and the settlement included a Deferred Criminal Prosecution Agreement, the third (by my count) such agreement involving precious metals manipulation (BankAmerica and Scotiabank had previously entered into DPA’s involving precious metals manipulation).

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/jpmorgan-chase-co-agrees-pay-920-million-connection-schemes-defraud-precious-metals-and-us

As expected, the settlement narrowly focuses on spoofing, the illegal short term trading device and not the much more serious long term suppression of silver (and gold) prices that I claim JPMorgan has been guilty of since 2008.  As such, any claims by victims of JPMorgan’s illegal activities would have to show damage from very short term trading, a difficult and expensive undertaking. As I have explained previously, were the Justice Department and CFTC to have alleged a long term suppression of prices by JPMorgan that would have, effectively, put the bank out of business – period. Accordingly, no such finding was possible.

At $10,600, Bitcoin price is on track for its second-best quarter ever

Data shows Bitcoin should seal both its best Q3 on record and its second-highest lifetime quarterly close on Sep. 30.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its best third quarter ever, data shows as Q3 2020 has just one day left to go.

According to price records from on-chain analytics resource Skew, this year should produce Bitcoin’s strongest Q3 in its history.

BTC price challenges Q2 2019 close

BTC/USD traded at around $10,680 at press time on Sep. 30. That number comfortably beats any other Q3 close on record, the next highest being last year’s $8,310.

What’s more, Bitcoin may seal the second-best quarterly close of its lifetime — but that depends on whether it can stay above Q2 2019’s $10,590.

“One more day to go and still looking like second-best quarterly close for bitcoin but it's a close call with Q2 2020,” Skew commented.

How to put a “down payment” on your favorite stock

By Luke Downey 

It’s election season. That’s usually a very volatile period for the stock market. 

I discussed how the markets react during election season last week… And I fully expect this year to be no different. In sum, expect some choppiness. 

While volatility can be unsettling for many investors, there’s a way to limit your downside exposure to the market or a particular stock… while betting on the upside. It’s called a call option. 

Option trading gets a bad rap. Many investors believe it to be too risky… But as you’ll see, that isn’t true. Options simply give an investor options!

If you’ve never bought (or sold) an option before, a call option contract is the easiest to understand, and it’s a great starting point. 

Today, we’ll cover the basics of buying calls, along with an example that illustrates just how much money you can make from this strategy… in a short amount of time.

Almost all financial stocks are below their medium-term averages

Financial stocks have been among the laggards and still haven't been able to get out of their own way.

When they fell on Tuesday, they really fell, and it dragged most of them below their medium-term averages. For the first time since May, fewer than 15% of financials were able to hold above their 50-day averages. That comes during an environment where fewer than 40% of them even made it above their 200-day averages.

This ended a streak of more than 100 days with more than 15% of financials above their 50-day averages. In the broader market, when a long streak of positive momentum (or at least "not negative" momentum) ends, it often precedes positive returns, as those who missed the rally see their first real opportunity to get in.

With financials, these opportunities seemed heavily dependent on the larger market environment. When these streaks ended and more than 50% of financials were above their 200-day averages, forward returns were excellent, both in that sector and the broader market. When fewer than 50% were above their long-term averages, then not so much.

Who Got the $33 Billion in Farm Subsidies for the US-China Trade-War and Coronavirus Payments?

Individual recipients don’t even have to work on a farm; people getting these payments can be “city slickers.”

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Unlike food stamps and other welfare programs that are strictly controlled and limited by income, farm subsidies place few such obstacles on the folks that receive them. “Many recipients never have to set foot on the farm or ride in a tractor to get paid,” according to an analysis by EWG of Department of Agriculture records that it had obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.

The analysis covers the $33 billion spread across two farm subsidy programs: The Market Facilitation Program (MFP) created to offset the effects of the trade war against China, and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP).

Critical Lessons From Mining Royalty – Tom Kaplan and Ross Beaty

Gold and silver are correcting from their recent highs. If you’re new to the party, you’re probably worried.

Financings that were hot and oversubscribed just 2 weeks ago are now underwater. Liquidity will become a concern.

As long-time alligator investors are starting to lick their chops, we are also well aware this is not the first washout rodeo – nor will it be the last.

And today you’ll hear from two very successful mining entrepreneurs who have seen many cycles and plenty of volatility throughout their careers. I consider them mining royalty – and but foremost personal friends.

They made their fortunes by putting money to work in bad markets where no one else dared to invest.

That takes balls.

When you think of tech companies, there are a few names that always come to mind. Steve Jobs … Bezos… Gates… Zuckerberg…

The Stage Is Set for the Rise of the 'Next Chinas'

China's economy grew so fast, a lot of people missed what was happening...

The spectacular growth happened that quick. Let me explain...

You see, for a good stretch of the first decade of this century, China's economy was growing an average of 10% a year, and often faster...

Yet despite this, it never really dawned on many outsiders just how big of an impact this was having on China's people... and what that meant for investors.

I don't blame anyone for this. It's hard to "see" half a billion people being lifted out of abject poverty into the ranks of the middle class, especially when it's happening halfway around the world.

These Tiny Tech IPOs Could Be as Big as Amazon

Rachel’s note: Regular readers know we believe we’re in the middle of a massive tech boom. It’s bringing the biggest advancements of our lifetime…

And the way to profit as this trend ramps up is by finding the best stocks… that Main Street’s never heard of.

That’s why today, we had to share this opportunity from our friend and tech expert, Jeff Brown. He’s known by many as Silicon Valley’s top angel investor.

And on Wednesday, September 23, at 8 p.m. ET, he’ll reveal a special subsector of the tech market… with some of the biggest profits on offer. In fact, his first recommendation of one of these stocks gave his readers the chance at 432% gains.

You don’t want to miss it. Just go right here to reserve your free spot.

Here’s Jeff with more below…

By Jeff Brown, editor, The Bleeding Edge

Investing in recent years has been a rigged game.

How do I know? One simple illustration will show what I mean…

Amazon went public on May 15, 1997, just under three years after its founding. At the time, it was still a relatively small company. Its enterprise valuation was a mere $438 million. It generated $147.8 million in revenue that year and just $2.7 million in free cash flow in 1998.

But just see how things have changed…

This Is How Long the Bubble Will Last

THE underlying economy (U.S. and global) has a strong deflationary bias. Central banks can’t tolerate deflation, so they respond with inflationary measures such as money printing, zero rates and guarantees of all major securities markets.

Those policies won’t actually cause inflation, for reasons explained below. But, they will cause bubbles in certain asset classes, especially stocks.

There’s a serious question as to whether the central bank “inflationary measures” will actually work. They won’t.

Powell can talk all he wants about asymmetric inflation targeting and letting the economy run a little “hot” for longer than expected, as he did in his Jackson Hole speech on August 27, but he doesn’t actually know how to make inflation happen.

How Normies Are Getting Crypto-Rich With DeFi

Ethereum whales undoubtedly drive the decentralized finance (DeFi) movement, but many people making money on DeFi trends are just regular Joes, so to speak. 

One such trader, who asked to go only by Joe, is a math student at a Canadian university. Just by playing with Ethereum software and his own calculations, he managed to make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2020. This wasn’t his first rodeo, however; he’s been trading on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) for more than a year.

“I’m not a whale in the crypto world but I’m one of the top users of the DeFi protocol I use,” he said. “Before, when DeFi was smaller, there was a lot less competition.”