By Steve Sjuggerud TUESDAY, JULY 24, 2018
t is the best predictor we've found of recessions and stock market busts...
Since 1980, this one thing has predicted every recession, and nearly every stock market bust.
Nothing comes close to this indicator's accuracy.
The crazy part is, this is a man-made problem... And it is entirely the Federal Reserve's fault.
Yes, the Fed creates recessions and stock market busts. Here's how...
Whenever the Fed artificially raises short-term interest rates ABOVE long-term interest rates, bad things happen.
You see, the free market determines long-term interest rates. Normally, when the economy is healthy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates. (This is called the "yield curve.")